Hispanics Not Yet Major Political Force

Hispanic population

County 2000 2004

Apache 4.5% 4.2%

Cochise 30.7% 32.9%

Coconino 10.9% 11.1%

Gila 16.7% 16.3%

Graham 27.0% 27.8%

Greenlee 43.1% 46.3%

La Paz 22.4% 23.2%

Maricopa 24.8% 28.0%

Mohave 11.1% 11.4%

Navajo 8.2% 8.0%

Pima 29.3% 31.9%

Pinal 29.9% 30.5%

Santa Cruz 80.8% 81.9%

Yavapai 9.8% 10.5%

Yuma 50.5% 54.4%

Statewide 25.3% 27.8%

Source: Census Bureau

PHOENIX (By Howard Fischer, Capitol Media Services)September 30, 2004 - Arizona continues to become a more Hispanic state.

New figures released this morning show that those who identify themselves as of Hispanic or Latino origin now make up 27.8 percent of the state. That figure - as of June 2004, the most recent statistics available - is up 2.5 percentage points from the 2000 census.

That means the Hispanic population is growing faster than that of other groups combined.

But its potential to be a major force in Arizona politics probably is years off. That's not only the conclusion of pollster Bruce Merrill; it also is a sentiment shared by former state Senate leader Alfredo Gutierrez, who for years was possibly the state's pre-eminent Hispanic politician.

That Hispanics will become a political force, however, presumes that Hispanics all tend to identify with the same issues and unite behind the same candidates. Pollster Earl de Berge of the Behavior Research Center in Phoenix, who has surveyed Hispanic attitudes for years, said the trend may, in fact, be the reverse.

He said the growth in the Hispanic population in Arizona is less from immigrants from Mexico and Latin America than from the overall growth of families already here.

That, said de Berge, is reflected in the fact that 80 percent of Hispanics he has questioned can speak English.

What also has occurred, he said, is the development of Hispanic middle and upper classes, people whose political views may be vastly different than those of newcomers.

Merrill, a mass-communications professor at Arizona State University who directs the Walter Cronkite Media Research Program, said there is the potential for an enormous impact on politics and elections. He said, though, that sheer numbers alone won't make Hispanics a political force.

What's needed, he said, is for the Hispanic community to "become politicized."

Merrill said blacks had the push of the civil-rights movement. "Even today, African-Americans tend to be more interested in - and have more information about - politics than Anglos," he said.

Aside from the lack of that kind of national movement, Merrill said there are no Hispanic political leaders who are generally recognized by the community. The closest, he said, may be Henry Cisneros, former secretary of Housing and Urban Development and, before that, mayor of San Antonio. Merrill said there is a potential for Hispanics to have a much greater influence within five years and potentially even control politics in Arizona in a decade - if they get involved.

Gutierrez, a former gubernatorial candidate, agreed that the fact more than a quarter of Arizonans identify themselves as Hispanic has not translated into political influence.

"The numbers, unfortunately, don't express the political involvement at this moment," he said. "It takes years for numbers to manifest themselves into civic activity."

But he sees different factors at work than Merrill. For example, he said it takes five years for new legal immigrants to become citizens. Also, he said, much of the Hispanic population is young, and young people tend to be less interested in politics than older people.

He's not sure when population and political interest will reach critical mass.

"I think that we are due for a major involvement," Gutierrez said. "It might occur this year, it might occur even in a couple of years."