WASHINGTON (By Mike Madden, Arizona Republic) February 6, 2006 — The five sentences President Bush devoted to immigration in his State of the Union speech show that the White House remains committed to pushing for a guest-worker program this year.

But what the president's words didn't convey is how much force will be behind that push.

As the Senate prepares to debate immigration-reform bills this spring, Bush and other Republicans are weighing their desire to overhaul the system against concerns that doing so would create a rift within the ranks of the GOP a few months before the midterm elections in November.

Public anger over the increase in illegal immigration means Republicans stand to gain if they can convince voters that they're working to fix the problem. But conservatives hoping to crack down on undocumented workers and employers who break the law by hiring them say what Bush wants wouldn't do that. Led by that bloc, the House passed its own immigration bill in December, focusing mostly on enforcement.

"It's a delicate issue, because it's an issue that can drive a wedge through the Republican Party," said Pedro Celis, chairman of the Republican National Hispanic Assembly, which supports a guest-worker program. "It's a very real risk that nothing happens. In election years, politicians tend to avoid difficult votes."

GOP leaders are trying hard to prevent any wedge over immigration, but that has required constant work. Grass-roots conservatives and many lawmakers are agitating for more barriers along the U.S.-Mexican border and more raids at job sites to find undocumented workers.

At the same time, business groups such as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, a strong GOP ally, want a temporary-worker program, saying they need immigrant labor.

Republicans also have been trying to win more votes from Hispanics, an effort that could be endangered by GOP proposals to make illegal presence in the United States a federal crime or to build walls on the border, analysts say.

"You certainly see some of the rhetoric coming out of the White House, especially, is an effort to try to combat that and continue making those inroads into the Latino electorate," said Rodolfo Espino, a political-science professor at Arizona State University.

At last month's Republican National Committee meeting in Washington, GOP leaders maneuvered to block a resolution offered by Arizona activist Randy Pullen that would have put the party on record as opposing the type of guest-worker program Bush wants. Instead, the RNC voted to support Bush's position.

In his speech Tuesday night, Bush didn't dwell much on immigration, repeating some of the same calls for a more secure border, better enforcement and a "rational, humane" guest-worker program, which he said wouldn't be amnesty for the estimated 11 million undocumented immigrants already in the United States.

Though Bush two years ago first called for some kind of immigration reform, including a guest-worker plan, he never has given details of what he wants. Nor has he said which, if any, of the handful of proposals in Congress he might support.

Still, conservatives who often rally behind Bush during big moments like the State of the Union were disappointed.

"We must not surrender to the illegal invasion of our country," Rep. J.D. Hayworth, R-Ariz., said after the speech, calling immigration a "profound exception" to his support for the president.

Hayworth introduced his immigration bill in the fall, which would deputize local police to enforce immigration laws, add federal agents to find undocumented workers and deny U.S. citizenship to children of undocumented immigrants born here. He voted against the bill the House passed in December, saying it didn't go far enough.

Other Arizona lawmakers are pushing legislation to allow temporary work visas for some immigrants, with dueling plans offered by Republican Sens. John McCain and Jon Kyl. Reps. Jeff Flake and Jim Kolbe, both Republicans, sponsored a House version of McCain's plan.

The fact that Bush gave the issue only a brief mention in his speech last week might indicate the White House won't make immigration a major priority this year, some conservatives said.

"It was politically important for him not to dwell on it, because it's so divisive and so much of the public is hostile to it, and he's so weak politically that he can't even push it," said Mark Krikorian, director of the Center for Immigration Studies, a Washington think tank that seeks a reduction in legal and illegal immigration.

But guest-worker supporters say they believe Bush still is committed to the idea.

"The good news is for those of us who think that sometimes the (conservative) radio talk-show hosts go nuts and worry that the White House will feel rattled, this is not a rattled statement," said Grover Norquist, a lobbyist with close ties to the Bush administration and who supports a temporary-worker program.

How immigration might affect campaigns this fall is unclear. Recent national polls show voters want Bush and Congress to respond to the increase in illegal immigration, but they don't rank the issue among the most important concerns on their minds. In two elections last fall where Republican candidates made illegal immigration a focus, the Virginia governor's race and a special election for a House seat from Orange County, Calif., both lost.

"I think the Republican Party has a major problem down within their own ranks on this," said Bill Burton, who runs the Democratic House campaign organization.

But Arizona's Pullen said he didn't think a split would hurt the party.

"I don't believe it's a rift," he said. "If we agree on 80 percent of everything, we can get things done."